Tuesday, 22 July 2014

Update on Gold, Silver, Crude oil, Aluminium and Zinc








Toneeees of money minted in yesterday's trading session... Hope you all enjoyed a lot!!




Have a look on it!!






Gold




Told to buy around 28000 with stop loss 27900. Spurts and made a high of 28217 and slipped again

Now what to expect???

Support at 27900 and Resistance at 28400---28650

Decisive close below 27900 take to 27700---27550 and then to 27400 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 28400---28650 mark again

Further upside rally seen only close above 28650 mark

Till then traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation. Anything seems will update via SMS




Silver



Too told to buy Silver around 45050---45000 with stop loss of 44600. Spurts and made a high of 45535 and settled at 45174

Now what to expect???

Support at 45000---44600 and Resistance at 45800---46400

Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation... Anything seems will update via SMS



Crude oil



Sent message to buy Crude oil around 6210---6200. Booked full profit at 6265

Now what to expect???

Support at 6170 and Resistance at 6270

Two consecutive closes above 6270 will take to 6330---6370+ mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 6170 mark

Trade with levels only



Aluminium



Rally continueeee... Made a high of 121.65. We are holding long from 115.20. Too recommended buying in Aluminium at 120 mark

Now what to expect???

Two consecutive closes above 120.00 will take to 122.50---124.00+ mark in days to come

Book part profit and in panic will buy with revise stop loss of 119.00 on closing basis




Zinc



Too rally continueee... Told to buy Zinc at 139.20. Just made a high of 142.15.

Now what to expect???

Support at 139.00 and Resistance at 142.50

Two consecutive closes above 142.50 will see further upside rally till 144---145+ mark in days to come

Traders holding long as per our level can book part profit and revise stop loss of 139.00 on closing basis

Others can trade with levels only














































More will update soon...

Currency Update - USDINR remained between 60.20-60.40 expected range























USDINR remained between 60.20-60.40 expected range. The two inverse hammer candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating indecision among the USDINR traders. We expect consolidation or range bound move in USDINR continue unless it gives closing above 60.65 or below 60.10.  
  
 Dollar/rupee in the interbank offshore market on caution ahead of the release of retail inflation for the US amid uncertainty over recent geopolitical tensions.  Dollar/rupee in the non-deliverable forwards market maturing in one month rose to Rs 60.52/$1 compared to previous close Rs 60.47/$1 and onshore spot previous close of Rs 60.30/$1.

 Malaysia reached an agreement with the Separatist group to retrieve bodies of 298 passengers that were killed in the downing of a civil aircraft in Ukraine-Russia border.
 Demand for safe-haven assets dampened appetite ahead of the release of US compnay earnings and the yield on the 10-year US treasury erased 2 bps to 2.48%.







Intraday price movement in EURINR was flat, and after hitting a day low 81.5075 pair settled at 81.66. For Tuesday a bullish move till 81.90 levels could be expected in EURINR following to an inverted hammer candle stick formation. On the downside, a breakdown below 81.40 levels would result in a correction till 81.20-81.00 levels or below.








Intraday price movement in GBPINR was little bit volatile, and after hitting a high 103.20 levels the pair pulled down till 102.91 levels and closed at 103.12 levels. For Tuesday a short term correction 102.82-102.60 levels could be expected in GBPINR unless it gives closing above 103.25 levels which is coincide with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A breakdown below 102.95 levels would result in a correction till 102.50 levels or below.







JPYINR traded above the near term resistance of 59.45 levels and made a high of 59.6325 levels before closing at 59.5650 levels. On Tuesday, a bearish move till 59.20-59.10 levels could be expected in JPYINR following a bearish hamrai candle stick formation on EOD chart.


















































More will update soon...

Though for the day






































Monday, 21 July 2014

Weekly Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy







News Roundup





Gold futures declined on Friday, one day after rallying more than 1% on the back of mounting geopolitical concerns. Gold spiked more than 1% on Thursday following the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines jet in eastern Ukraine, with the U.S. blaming pro-Russian separatists for shooting down the aircraft, killing 298 aboard. Moscow has denied involvement in the crash, which came a day after the U.S. announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia for supporting separatists in east Ukraine. Markets were also unsettled as Israel expanded its ground offensive in Gaza. Data from the CFTC showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures. Net longs totaled 131,971 contracts, down 8.5% from net longs of 144,272 net silver longs totaled 46,795 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 44,517 contracts in the preceding week.
On the week, Comex copper prices lost 2.6%, or 8.5 cents a pound as jitters over a possible bond default in China's construction sector weighed. Concerns over domestic bond defaults stoked investor worries that financing deals, which have locked up vast quantities of copper could unravel. A cooler property sector not only weighs on demand for copper as construction material, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector. China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year. According to the CFTC, net copper longs totaled 48,994 contracts as of last week, compared to net longs of 38,367 contracts in the preceding week.
Crude oil futures gave back some of the previous sessions strong gains on Friday, as investors reassessed the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East. Oil spiked on Thursday following the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines jet in eastern Ukraine, with the U.S. blaming pro-Russian separatists for the act. Moscow has denied involvement in the crash, which came a day after the U.S. announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russia for supporting separatists in east Ukraine. Markets were also unsettled as Israel expanded its ground offensive in Gaza against Hamas militants who fired hundreds of rockets into Israel. Oil prices have been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as investors pared back positions that had priced in the possibility of major supply disruptions stemming from violence in Libya and Iraq. According to CFTC, Net longs totaled 259,259 contracts as of last week, down 14.8% from net longs of 304,366 in the preceding week.

U.S. natural gas futures fell to a seven-month low on Friday, as concerns over tight supplies continued to fade away. Natural gas prices sold off on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 107 billion cubic feet last week, above expectations for an increase of 98 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 65 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.129 trillion cubic feet as of last week, narrowing the deficit to the five-year average to 25.5%, down from a record 54.7% at the end of March. Meanwhile, updated weather-forecasting models called for cooler temperatures across most parts of the heavily-populated Midwest and Northeast regions over the next five days. Demand for natural gas tends to fluctuate in the summer based on hot weather and air conditioning use.Data from CFTC showed that, Net longs totaled 37,617 contracts, up 1.9% from net longs of 36,906 in the previous week. In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release what will be closely watched data on consumer prices, home sales and manufacturing orders.

Weekly Technical outlook





Gold




Last week, we have seen high volatility in Gold though traded with negative bias and settled at 27993 but closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 27724 and 27709 respectively
This week, Gold has support at 27900 and resistance at 28600. Now will do fresh buying only weekly close above 28600 mark else it could test its support level of 27900 again. Two consecutive closes below 27900 will see further panic till 27650 and then to 27500---27350 mark. 27350 act as major support while 28600 act as major resistance. Traders can sell Gold on rise around 28300---28400 with stop loss above 28600 on closing basis for the initial target of 27900.




Silver




Last week, Silver too had a volatile session and traded with negative bias. It unable to breach the resistance level of 46400 and crashed vertically to 44371 mark finally settled at 44931 also it closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA is at 44674 and 44020 respectively.

This week, Silver has support at 44300---42900 and resistance at 45800---46400. Now will do fresh buying only weekly close above 46400 mark else it could test its support level of 44300---43900 again. Two consecutive closes below 43900 will see further panic till 43200---42600 and then to 42000 mark in days to come. 43900 act as major support while 46400 act as major resistance. Traders can sell Silver on rise around 45500---45800 with stop loss above 46400 on closing basis for the initial target of 44300---43900. 
 As expected, Crude oil bounced back from lower levels. We clearly indicated that Crude oil has support at 5930 and could take dead cat bounce from lower levels. It made a low of 5968 and bounced back to 6264 mark and finally settled at 6209 but closed above 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 6193.



Crude oil



This week, Crude oil has support at 6190 and resistance at 6270. Close below 6190 will see further panic till 6150---6120 and then to 6050 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again. Close above 6270 will see further upside rally till 6330---6370 and then to 6450 mark in days to come. Will expect high volatility in Crude oil for next 1-2  trading weeks. So traders can trade safely with levels only and wait for conformation.




Natural Gas



Our sell call in Natural gas proven great and made a low of 236.60. We recommended selling from 263 and below 247 mark and finally settled at 237.80 mark also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 251.20 and 262.50 respectively.

This week, Natural gas has support at 236 and resistance at 243. Close below 236 will take to 229---225 mark else it could test its resistance again. Further upside rally seen only close above 243 mark. Traders holding short as per our level can book 80% profit and revise stop loss above 243 on closing basis.  Traders remain cautious in Natural gas as will expect dead cat bounce from lowers levels.

  
  
Copper



Last week, Copper unable to breach the resistance level of 438 and crashed vertically to 424.75. We recommended selling below 431 and finally settled 426.15 also closed below 21DEMA but above 55DEMA which is at 428.40 and 422.70 respectively.

This week, Copper has support at 423---418 and resistance at 433. Copper corrected sharply after five consecutive week’s rally amid profit booking. Copper still looks weak and could test its support level of 423---418 mark. Further panic seen only weekly close below 418 level else it could test its resistance again. Traders can sell Copper on rise with revise stop loss above 433 on closing basis for the initial target of 423—418. 



Nickel



Last week, Nickel too unable to breach the resistance level of 1170 and crashed vertically to 1115.80 mark. We recommended selling below 1150 mark and finally settled at 1122 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 1138.00 and 1123.40 respectively.

This week, Nickel has support at 1115 and resistance at 1142.  Close below 1115 will take to 1100---1090 mark. Further panic seen only weekly close below 1090 level else it could test its resistance level of 1142 mark again. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 1142 will see fire in Nickel till 1170---1188 level. Traders holding short as per our level can book part profit and revise stop loss above 1142 on closing basis



Weekly Pivot Levels


Symbol
Contract
Close
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2








GOLD
05AUG2014
27993
28400
28806
27991
27585
27176
SILVER
05SEP2014
44931
45731
46531
45051
44251
43571
CRUDEOIL
19AUG2014
6172
6278
6384
6130
6024
5876
NATURALGAS
28JUL2014
237.8
247.5
257.3
242.1
232.3
226.9
COPPER
29AUG2014
426.15
433.9
441.6
429.3
421.6
417.0
NICKEL
31JUL2014
1122
1157.2
1192.4
1136.5
1101.3
1080.6
LEAD
31JUL2014
131.15
132.7
134.2
131.4
129.8
128.5
ZINC
31JUL2014
138.2
139.3
140.3
138.0
137.0
135.7
ALUMINIUM
31JUL2014
118.7
120.6
122.4
118.0
116.1
113.5

































































More will update soon...