Monday, 22 December 2014

Update on Metal and Energy







Nickel



Support at 970---960 and Resistance at 998

Above 998... it could test 1013---1018 and then to 1030 level else it could test its support level of 983---970 and then to 960 mark

Two consecutive closes below 960 will see free fall till 920---905 mark in days to come

Trade with levels only




Lead



Support at 118 and Resistance at 120

Closes below 118 will take to 116.50---115.80. Further panic seen only close below 115.80 mark else it could test its resistance level of 120 again

Close above 120 will see further upside rally till 122---123 mark

Looks choppy at this stage. So trade safely with levels only



Natural Gas



Crashed vertically and made a low of 209.10. We recommended selling below 230 and positional selling below 224 mark

Now what to expect???

Below 209... will see further panic till 203---196 and then to ???

Minor hurdle at 218---223

On rise sell it!! Revise stop loss above 227 on closing basis. Others can trade with levels only



Crude oil



Told to buy Crude oil positional around 3650---3620 and add more lot around 3550---3520 with stop loss of 3430. Just made a high of 3730

Now what to expect???

Close above 3730 will see further upside rally till 3790---3850+ mark

Already booked part profit.. Revise stop loss of 3600



Gold



Support at 26700 and Resistance at 27050---27300 while Silver has support at 36400---36000 and resistance at 37150---37600---38500

Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation

Anything seems will update via SMS





































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Weekly Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy















Global Market
Last close
% Chg.
GOLD
$1,195.43
-2.19
SILVER
$17.45
0.44
CRUDE
$57.97
0.43
NG
$3.38
-11.83
COPPER
$2.9
-1.03
LME
Tonnes in storage
Weekly Change
Aluminum
4271625
-30075
Copper
170900
4450
Nickel
406722
198
Lead
220800
600
Zinc
681700
-5850











News Roundup



Bullion came off earlier lows and moved into positive territory on Friday after investors felt the commodity had fallen too far amid a dollar rally. Gold prices have tumbled in recent months as markets prep for the Fed to raise interest rates, which is widely seen taking place in 2015, as higher borrowing costs chip away at the precious metal's appeal as a hedge to weaker paper currencies, the product of loose monetary policy. The dollar continued to see support after the U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Dec. 12 fell by 6,000 to 289,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 295,000. Economist had forecast an increase of 1,000. The data came a day after the Fed said it would be "patient" before raising rates, guidance which it said is consistent with earlier assurances statement that rates would stay low "for a considerable time." Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank was unlikely to raise rates for the "next couple of meetings" indicating that a move in April at the earliest is possible. Still, the dollar firmed on the notion that the days of rock-bottom interest rates are coming to an end, which chipped away at gold prices until bottom fishers sent the commodity back into positive territory. Gold prices have tumbled in recent months as markets prep for the Fed to raise interest rates, which is widely seen taking place in 2015, as higher borrowing costs chip away at the precious metal's appeal as a hedge to weaker paper currencies, the product of loose monetary policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank was unlikely to raise rates for the "next couple of meetings" indicating that a move in April at the earliest is possible. Still, the dollar has generally firmed on the notion that the days of rock-bottom interest rates are coming to an end, which chipped away at gold prices until bottom fishers sent the commodity back into positive territory.

Oil closed up as much as 5 percent on Friday, its biggest gain in over two years, as some traders took profits on short positions after prices this week hit their lowest since 2009. A sharp bout of short-covering prior to expiry of the U.S. January crude oil contract alleviated pressure in a market dominated by sellers the past six months and lighter-than-usual pre-holiday volume exaggerated the rise on a day that otherwise lacked much in the way of headline news. While some traders may be betting that $60 a barrel Brent represents a likely floor for the market, others remain unconvinced. With uncertainty high, demand for options has surged this week, with the CBOE crude oil volatility index soaring to its highest since 2011. "This is a surprisingly forceful run up as fundamentally nothing's changed in this market in terms of supply-demand," said Gene McGillian, senior analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. "I think the switch in WTI's front-month and the second short-covering act for the week kind of got overblown." The closing gain of 4.5 percent was the largest since August 2012, and came after a similar intraday surge in WTI two days ago. But WTI still ended the week 2 percent lower, extending a rout that has nearly halved prices since June. This week's earlier slide was fueled by more comments from powerful Gulf OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who said they were still unwilling to cut output, preferring to wait for other suppliers to slow down. And while Friday's rally was the strongest since the selloff began, traders were not convinced the market, which hit 5-year lows this week, had bottomed.
"If the market keeps going higher, it'll be a sign for me to sell into the strength," said Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors in Laurel Hollow, New York. He said lower volume over the holidays is likely to exaggerate moves. We will not expect price to move up sharply due to Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it would not cut output to prop up oil markets even if non-OPEC nations did so, in one of the toughest signals yet that the world's top petroleum exporter plans to ride out the market's biggest slump in years. Referring to countries outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters: "If they want to cut production they are welcome: We are not going to cut, certainly Saudi Arabia is not going to cut." He blamed the fall in prices to half their levels of six months ago on speculators and what he called a lack of cooperation from non-OPEC producers. His remarks at a conference in Abu Dhabi marked the second time in three days that the kingdom has signaled that it would not alter output levels, preferring to allow the market to stabilize on its own. The determined tone of his comments was echoed by some other Arab oil ministers at the conference in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) capital. UAE Oil Minister Suhail Bin Mohammed al-Mazroui urged all of the world's producers not to raise their oil output next year, saying this would quickly steady prices. He did not elaborate. The world is forecast to need less OPEC oil in 2015 because of a rising supply of U.S. shale oil and other competing sources, with no significant increase in world demand growth.


U.S. gas prices dropped again, falling to the lowest mark in more than five years. The average price of a gallon of gasoline has fallen 25 cents in the past two weeks, hitting a price not seen at the pump since May 2009, according to the most recent Lundberg survey, which was released Sunday. Prices for regular-grade unleaded gasoline fell to $2.47 a gallon, according to the Friday survey. GasBuddy.com, which also tracks gas prices around the country, has the national average even lower, at $2.41 a gallon. The recent drop has taken prices down more than $1.25 a gallon since a recent peak in May of this year, Reuters reported. The highest price included in the Lundberg survey area of 48 U.S. states was recorded in Long Island at $2.82 per gallon, with the lowest in Tulsa, at $2.06 per gallon. American Automobile Association travel analysts cited by USA Today said they estimate current gas prices are likely to drop as much as 7 cents by Christmas and an additional drop of 7 cents is possible by New Year's. "This is mostly driven by Crude oil prices, and absent a sudden spike we very well may see a drop of a few pennies more," said Lundberg publisher Trilby Lundberg. "That said, demand is up at these low prices." Average gas prices were slightly higher Sunday than they had been during the week, according to Gas Buddy. On Friday, the site was reporting gas less than $2 a gallon in a number of cities, but by Sunday the lowest reported price was in Lubbock, Texas, where gas was holding steady at $2.01 a gallon. The world’s top petroleum exporter, Saudi Arabia, said Sunday it would not reduce oil output to prop up oil markets even if other nations not included in the Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries contingent did so. The move was a strong sign that the oil giant plans to ride out oil’s slumping prices for the foreseeable future.





Technical View





Gold



Last week, we have seen high volatility in Gold. It made a high of 27796 and a low of 26732 and settled at 26998 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 26844 and 26968 respectively.


 


This week, Gold has support at 27700 and resistance at 27300---37800. Close below 27000 will see panic till 26500---26200 mark. Further panic seen only weekly close below 26200 level else it could test its resistance level of 27300 and then to 27550---27800 mark again. Trend looks choppy and has no clear direction also will expect high volatility in this week too. So traders can trade safely with levels only and wait for conformation. Nimble traders can try to grab an opportunity to buy Gold in any sharp panic with strict stop loss of 26200 on closing basis.



Silver



Silver unable to breach the resistance level of 39000 and crashed vertically to 36152 mark. We recommended selling below 38300 mark level of 36300 and settled at 36940 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA is at 37085 and 37530 respectively.


 


This week, Silver (Mar) has support at 36000 and resistance at 37700---38300. Two consecutive closes above 37300 will take to 37700---38300+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 36000 again. Two consecutive closes below 36000 will see further panic till 35300---34800 mark. Trend looks choppy and has no clear direction also will expect high volatility in Silver too. So traders can trade safely with levels only and wait for conformation.



Crude oil



In high volatility, Crude oil made a low of 3436 and bounced back sharply on late Friday to settle at 3617 mark also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 3960 and 4500 respectively.


 



Crude oil formed DOJI pattern on MCX weekly chart while double bottom pattern on Nymex WTI 4 hourly chart.  This week, Crude oil has support at $54 INR 3430 and resistance at $59 INR 3730. Two consecutive closes above 3730 will take to 3850---3930 and then to 4050+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 3520---3480 and then to 3430 mark. Further panic seen only weekly close below $54 INR 3430 mark but chances are unlikely to breach its support for short to medium term. Traders can buy and accumulate Crude oil in panic with strict stop loss of $54 INR 5430 on closing basis.



Natural Gas



Last week, Natural gas crashed vertically and made a low of 419.70. We recommended selling below 233 mark and settled at 221.40 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 235.50 and 241.60 respectively.


 


This week, Natural gas has support at 218 and resistance at 227---233. Natural Gas crashed vertically on late Friday and breached its support level of 227. Close below 218 will take to 214---210 mark. Two consecutive closes below 210 will see free fall in Natural Gas till 205---201 mark in days to come. Traders holding short as per our level can book full profit and on rise will sell again around 225---228 with revise stop loss of 233 on closing basis.




Copper



Volatility continues in Copper as trend remain continue and has no clear direction. It made a high of 414.90 and a low of 401.25 and settled at 409.10 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 413.90 and 420.80 respectively.




Copper trend still looks choppy and has no charm at upper levels. It is not possible to provide accurate levels in Jerky trend but one thing is clear that for short to medium term downside seems limited in Copper and an sharp fall will be buying opportunity but trade with levels only. Copper has major support at 388 while resistance at 415---424---438---This week, Copper (Feb) has support at 396---388 and resistance at 415. Two consecutive closes above 415 will take to 424---428 and then to 433+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 400---396 and then to 388 again. Further panic seen only weekly close below 388 mark. Traders can buy and accumulate Copper in panic around 405---400 with stop loss of 388 on closing basis.



Nickel



Last week, Nickel traded with negative bias. It crashed vertically and made a low of 961.50. We recommended selling below 1018 level and settled at 990.80 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 1004.70 and 1009.80 respectively.


 


This week, Nickel has support at 970 and resistance at 1000. Close above 1000 will take to 1013---1018 and then to 1030 else it could test its support level of 970 again. Two consecutive closes below 970 will take to 955---940 mark. Upper side seems limited and any sharp rise will be selling opportunity in Nickel. So traders can trade with levels only and wait for conformation.




 Weekly Pivot Levels

Symbol
Contract
Close
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2








GOLD
05FEB2015
26998
27618
28239
26949
26554
26111
SILVER
05MAR2015
36940
38499
40057
38095
35772
34603
CRUDEOIL
18JAN2014
3616
3744
3872
3784
3462
3308
NATURALGAS
26DEC2014
221.4
239
256
233
212
203
COPPER
27FEB2015
409.1
415.6
422.1
406.7
401.9
394.8
NICKEL
31DEC2014
991
1049
1107
1033.4
947
903
LEAD
31DEC2014
119.8
121.7
123.7
124.8
118.3
116.8
ZINC
31DEC2014
119
125
130
136.6
115
111
ALUMINIUM
31DEC2014
137.8
140
142.2
121.2
134.3
130.8








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More will update soon...