Friday, 27 February 2015

Update on Bullion, Base metal and Energy









Gold



Support at 26050 and Resistance at 26400---26550

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 26050 will see free fall in Gold till 25600----25300 and then to 24800 mark else it could test its resistance level of 26400---26550 again

Further upside rally seen only weekly close above 26550 mark

Trade with levels only




Silver



Support at 35700 and Resistance at 36900---37400

Below 36300... it could test 36000---35700. Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 35700 will see free fall in Silver till ???

Else it could test its resistance again

Upperside seems limited in Gold and Silver and any sharp rise will be selling opportunity but trade with levels only



Crude oil


Below 3130... our target was 3070---3030. Just made a low of 3042

Now what to expect???

Two consecutive closes below 3030 will see further panic till 2970---2930 and then to 2850 mark

Hurdle intact at 3130---3180

Trade with levels only.. Anything seems will update during market hours


Natural gas


Below 176... our target was 172---168. Just made a low of 168.20. Below 168... will see further panic till 165---162---160 mark

160 act as major support while hurdle intact at 190

Trade with levels only





Today... there is expiry in base metal and will expect high volatility. So trade safely with levels only. Anything seems will update via SMS































More will update soon...

Daily Currency View - Consolidation above 62.08 could expect in USDINR ahead of Union Budget



USDINR March Future

USDINR extended its previous day bearish trend and settled with the loss of 0.42% at 62.11 levels. In near term 62.08  levels will act as an immediate support and only sustaining below it would confirm for negative move till 61.80 levels and thereafter for 61.50 levels in days to come, else the pair may consolidate around 62.30-62.50 ahead of Union Budget.

Recommendation/View :

Below 62.08 will expect to test 61.80-61.50 with stop loss 62.30.


EURINR March Future

EURINR remained negative as was expected yesterday and after triggering stop loss 70.90 made a low 70.49 the first downside was 70.40 in our previous day report. 

Today, EURINR witnessed 1.16% negative opening at 69.7975 against previous close of 70.5150 and we expect that weakness will continue and downside target could expect towards 69.50-69.35 in days to come.

Recommendation:

Sell EURINR 69.75-69.80 Target 69.50-69.30 stop loss 70.00. 


GBPINR March Future

The two inverted hammer with similar top was resulted decent fall from 96.90 to towards 96.2450 levels in GBPINR as was expected yesterday. 

Intraday sell call given around 96.86-96.88 with stop loss 96.92 was rocked with GBPINR drop towards 95.8275 recent low.  

Now next support is seen at 95.80 levels below it 95.50-95.20-95.00 levels is expected in days to come.  

Recommendation 

Sell GBPINR March below 95.80 with stop loss 95.95


JPYINR March Future

 JPYINR settled down by 0.20% at 5.2675 levels yesterday. Sell strategy given at 52.55 was not initiated as JPYINR continued to trade below 52.50 levels. 

 A long bearish candle stick formation on EOD chart is yet indicating for correction towards 51.80-51.60 in days to come.  

Now pair trading at 52.13 levels and its expected that any jump towards 52.30-52.35 levels could attract huge selling pressure for the downside target of 51.90-51.70 levels with stop loss of 52.52.




Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today

Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
10:30am
JPY
Housing Starts y/y
-11.10%
-14.70%
Neutral
12:30pm
EUR
German Import Prices m/m
-0.80%
-1.70%
Neutral
All Day
EUR
German Prelim CPI m/m
0.60%
-1.10%
Positive
1:15pm
EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m
-0.30%
1.50%
Negative
1:30pm
EUR
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
-1.50%
-1.30%
Negative
3:30pm
EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
0.20%
-0.40%
Positive
7:00pm
USD
Prelim GDP q/q
2.10%
2.60%
Negative

USD
Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
0.00%
0.00%
Neutral
8:15pm
USD
Chicago PMI
58.40
59.40
Negative
8:30pm
USD
Pending Home Sales m/m
2.50%
-3.70%
Positive

USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
94.20
98.10
Negative

USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
-
2.50%
-
8:45pm
USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
-
-
-
                                                   
Impact: High Low Medium
 









More will update soon... 
 

Railway budget 2015-16 highlights

Railway budget 2015-16 highlights

The Minister of Railways Suresh Prabhakar Prabhu unveiled Railway Budget 2015-16 in Parliament yesterday following are the key highlights of the budget.

OPERATING RATIO

-Targeted operating ratio for 2015-16 at 88.5% against 91.8%in 2014-15.

INVESTMENT PLAN 

-Proposes Rs 1.9 trillion for Network Decongestion (including DFC, Electrification, Doubling including electrification and traffic facilities)  

-Proposes Rs 1.93 trillion for Network Expansion (including electrification)

-Proposes Rs 390 billion for National Projects (North Eastern & Kashmir connectivity projects)

-Proposes Rs 1.27 trillion for Safety (Track renewal, bridge works, ROB, RUB and Signalling & Telecom)

-Proposes Rs 50 billion for Information Technology / Research
-Proposes Rs 1.02 trillion for Rolling Stock (Locomotives, coaches, wagons - production & maintenance)

-Proposes Rs 125 billion for Passenger Amenities

-Proposes Rs 650 billion for High Speed Rail & Elevated corridor

-Proposes Rs 1 trillion for Station redevelopment and logistic parks

-Envisages investment of Rs 8.5 trillion in next five years to be mobilized from multiple sources to cater to funding


PARTNERSHIPS: 

-Partnering with key stakeholders such as states, PSU's, partner with multilateral and bi-lateral organizations & other governments to gain access to long term financing and technology from overseas, the private sector to improve last mile connectivity, expand fleet of rolling stock and modernize our station infrastructure.

-PPP cell to be revamped to make it result oriented.
-Projects for rail connectivity to many ports and mines being developed under participative models; simplification of procedures and consistency of policy to be ensured.

-"Foreign Rail Technology Cooperation scheme" to be launched.
-MUTP III for Mumbai to be taken up.

-Joint ventures to be set up with States for focused project development, resource mobilization, land acquisition, project implementation and monitoring of critical rail projects.

-JVs to be set up with major public sector customers for meeting requirements of new lines.


NETWORK EXPANSION

-Fast track sanctioned works on 7,000 kms of double/third/fourth lines and commission 1,200 km in 2015-16 at an investment of Rs 86.86 billion, 84% higher on year.

-77 projects covering 9,400 km of doubling/tripling/quadrupling works along with electrification, covering almost all States, at a cost of Rs 961.82 billion. 

-In the North East States, Meghalaya brought on the Railway map of India and direct connectivity to Delhi provided. Barak Valley to be connected on BG.

-Award of 750 km of civil contracts and 1,300 km of system contracts in 2015-16 on Dedicated Freight Corridor; 55 km section of Eastern DFC to be completed in the current year. 

-Acceleration of pace of Railway electrification: 6,608 route km sanctioned for 2015-16.


FREIGHT 

-Transport Logistics Corporation of India (TRANSLOC), to be set up for developing common user facilities with handling and value-added services to provide end-to-end logistics solution at select Railway terminals through Public Private Partnerships.

-Air cargo sector to be developed to facilitate and integrate the movement of air cargo between ICDs and the gateway airports.

-Long haul freight operations to be used extensively; construction of long loop lines to be expedited. Distributed power system for multi-loco haulage to be accelerated.

TRAIN SPEED

-Speed of 9 railway corridors to be increased from existing 110 and 130 kmph to 160 and 200 kmph respectively so that inter-metro journeys like Delhi-Kolkotta and Delhi-Mumbai can be completed overnight.

-Average speed of freight trains in empty and loaded conditions, will be enhanced to 100 kmph for empty freight trains and 75 kmph for loaded trains; loading density on all major freight bearing routes to be upgraded to 22.82 tonne axle loads.


BULLET TRAIN

-Feasibility study for High Speed Rail between Mumbai-Ahmadabad is in advanced stage and report expected by the mid of this year. For other high speed routes on the diamond quadrilateral, studies are being commissioned.

UPGRADING MANUFACTURING CAPABILITY

-Creation of job opportunities by upgrading the manufacturing capability.

-Functioning of Indian Railways Production Units and Workshops would be reviewed to provide them a cutting edge; measures for technological up-gradation and enhancing productivity be undertaken to make them self-sustaining.


SAFETY

-For safety-related works to eliminate 3,438 level crossings at a total expense of Rs 65.8 billion have been sanctioned covering most States.

-Train Protection Warning System and Train Collision Avoidance System to be installed on select routes at the earliest.

-Modern track structure consisting of sleepers and heavier rails being used while carrying out primary track renewals. 

-Better welding techniques being promoted; digital type machines to replace analogue type machines.


TECHNOLOGY UP-GRADATION

-Constituting an innovation council called "Kayakalp" for business re-engineering and introducing a spirit of innovation in Railways
.
-IT vision to be unveiled: information on latest berth availability station navigation system, bar coded/RFID tracking of parcels and freight wagons, automated parcel warehouses. Integration of train control and asset management applications.


RESOURCE MOBILISATION

-Plan Budget up by 52% from Rs 657.98 billion to Rs 1 trillion in 2015-16. ----Support from the Central Government 41.6% of the Plan and Internal generation 17.8 %; setting up of a Financing Cell in the Railway Board.

-Setting up an infrastructure fund, a holding company and a JV with an existing NBFC of a PSU with IRFC, for raising long term debt from domestic as well as overseas sources, including multilateral and bilateral financial institutions.
-Monetisation of assets rather than selling them
.
-Digitized mapping of land records and responsibility fixing for encroachments.

-New strategy to tap latent advertising potential, including offering stations and trains for corporate branding.

-Coastal Connectivity Program. Railways in partnership with ports will deliver rail connectivity to Nargol, Chharra, Dighi, Rewas and Tuna.

-Projects worth Rs 2500 crore through BOT/ Annuity route. These include Wardha- Nagpur 3rd line, Kazipet-Vijaywada 3rd line, Bhadrak -Nargundi 3rd line and Bhuj- Nalia Gauge Conversion.

-Scrap disposal policy to be reviewed for speedier scrap disposal.


ENERGY AND SUSTAINABILITY

-Procure power through the bidding process at economical tariff from generating companies, power exchanges, and bilateral arrangements. 

-Initiative likely to save at least Rs 30 billion in next few years.

-1000 MW solar plants will be set up by the developers on 
Railway/private land and Railway buildings with subsidy/viability gap funding support of Ministry of Non-Renewable Energy in next five years.

-Water conservation mission including water audit and expansion of water harvesting systems.

-100 DEMUs to be enabled for dual fuel - CNG and diesel.
-Locomotives running on LNG are also currently under development.

BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR 2015-16

-Passenger earnings growth pegged at 16.7% and target budgeted at Rs. 50.175 

-Freight traffic is pegged at an all time• high incremental traffic of 85 million tonnes, anticipating a healthier growth in the core sector of economy; goods earnings proposed at Rs. 1 trillion which includes rationalisation of rates, commodity classification and distance slabs.

-Other coaching and sundries are projected at Rs 4.612 billion and Rs 7.318 billion.

-Gross Traffic Receipts estimated at Rs 1 billion, a growth of 15.3%.

-Ordinary Working Expenses proposed to grow at 9.6% over RE 2014-15. 


PLAN OUTLAY 2015-16

-Gross Budgetary Support of Rs 400 billion for the Railway's annual Plan. 

-Rs 1.645 billion has also been provided as Railway's share of diesel cess from the Central Road Fund. 

-Plan Outlay is Rs 1 trillion an increase of 52% over RE 2014-15. 

-It is anticipated that the Plan size will get higher once resources from institutional bodies are formalized during the course of the ensuing financial year.