Wednesday, 1 October 2014

Update on Bullion, Base Metal and Energy










Minted money in Silver or Not??? Clearly indicated to sell on rise for positional traders. Too indicated to sell Silver 39300 for intraday traders with stop loss of 39650







Have a look on it!!





Silver



Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 38300 will see free fall in Silver till 36000---35000 mark in days to come

Any sharp rise will be selling opportunity. Stop loss intact 40500

On Comex division... Silver made a low of $16.86. Weekly close below 16.80 will see further panic till $16.50---$16.20 mark

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below $16.20 will see free fall in days to come

Overall trend still looks weak and on rise will sell




Gold



Support at 26550 and Resistance at 27200

Will expect to trade in a range though bias remains negative and could test its support

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 26550 will see free fall in Gold till 26050---25700 and then to 25300 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again

Close above 27200 will expect dead cat bounce till 27350---27500 and then to 27800 mark

Trade with levels only



Copper



Unable to breach the resistance level of 423 and slipped again. We revised stop loss of 418

Now what to expect???

Support at 412 and Resistance at 419---423

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 412 will see free fall in Copper till 403---397 and then to ???

Else it could test its resistance again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 423 mark

Trade with levels only



Crude oil



Our revise stop loss of 5830... Below 5830 crashed vertically

Now what to expect???

Support at 5525 and Resistance at 5880---5930

Now will expect to trade in a range for next 1-2 trading weeks... Nimble traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation

Anything seems will update via SMS



Natural Gas



Support at 254 and Resistance at 259

Two consecutive closes above 259 will take to 263---267+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 254 again

Decisive break and sustain below 254 will see panic till 247----243 and then to ???

Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation






































More will update soon...

Tuesday, 30 September 2014

RBI POLICY HIGHLIGHTS: Repo rate unchanged at 8%, cuts HTM limit

  
POLICY ACTION

·         Keeps Repo rate unchanged at 8%
·         Keeps CRR unchanged at 4% of banks NDTL
·         Reverse repo unchanged at 7%
·         Cuts Export credit refinance to 15% of credit outstanding from 32% with effect from Oct 10.
·         The marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate unchanged at 9%.
Lowers ceiling for HTM category limit for SLR to 22% of NDTL against 24% previously
·         First cut in HTM to 23.5% effective from Fortnight Jan 10, 2015
·         Second cut in HTM to 23% effective from fortnight Apr 4, 2015

LIQUIDITY:
·         To continue with overnight Repo of 0.25% of banks NDTL under LAF
·         To continue with 7-day, 14-day term repo upto 0.75% of Banks NDTL
·         To continue with 1-day term repo & reverse repo to smoothen volatility
·         Retains Limit on short sale of liquid bonds at 0.75% of outstanding bonds
·         Retains Limit on short sale of illiquid bonds at 0.25% of outstanding bonds
·         Allows Banks & PDs to take short positions in G-secs OTC market within specified short-sale limit
·         Hikes foreign exchange hedging for importers to 100% of past 3 yrs average from 50% previously.
·         Additional liquidity of upto 5% will be available over & above MSF
·         Allows banks to include additional 7% over & above SLR for liquidity coverage
·         Final Norms to monitor tools for intra-day liquidity

ECONOMIC REVIEW:
·         CPI inflation to average to 8% in Q4FY15
·         CPI inflation may ease to 6% from current 8% by Nov
·         CPI inflation may climb back to 8% by Jan through Mar 2015 on reversing of base effects
·         CPI inflation may gradually ease to 7% Q4 FY16
·         Upside Risks to RBI target of 6% CPI inflation Jan 2016 are significant
·         Favourable base effects to dampen headline inflation
·         WPI inflation in Dec-Feb 2014 to be influenced by unfavourable base leading to spike.
·         Disinflationary mode of monetary policy to take place next year as monsoon moderates
·         FY15 real GDP growth seen at 5-6% with central estimate of 5.5%
·         Macroeconomic outlook vulnerable to domestic & global risks
·         FY15 Q4 GDP growth estimated at 5.6%
FY16 real GDP growth may rise to 6.3%
·         Sharp pick-up in FY15 Q1 growth may not be sustained in Q2, Q3 on deficient monsoon
·         Firming up of investment & export in FY15 to support manufacturing sector growth
·         Prospects of reinvigorating agri-growth may improve in Q4 FY15



Update on Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude oil and Natural Gas









Gold




Support at 26740 and Resistance at 27150

Two consecutive closes above 27150 will take to 27500---27650+ mark in days to come else it could test its support again

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 26740 mark

Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 26740 will see nonstop panic till 26450---26300 and then to ???

Trade with levels only



Silver



Today is the last day of Monthly close. If silver close below 39300 mark in today's trade then chances get bright for more panic in coming weeks

Silver has support at 38700---38300 and Resistance at 39800---40500

Traders can sell Silver on rise around 39500---39800 with strict stop loss of 40500 on closing basis for the initial target of 38700---38300

Any reversal seems will update via SMS



Copper



After loss of one rupee in sell call of Copper... We revised our call to buy Copper around 416.50---416.00 with stop loss of 412. It spurts and made a high of 422 mark

Now what to expect???

Support at 418---414 and Resistance at 423

Two consecutive closes above 423 will see further upside rally till 428---432 mark else it could test its support again

Fresh selling can initiate only weekly close below 412 mark

Trade with levels only



Crude oil



Flared like anything and hit 5860 mark. We recommended buying around 5720--5700 mark

Now what to expect???

Support at 5780---5725 and Resistance at 5930

Still looks positive and could test its resistance. Two consecutive closes above 5930 will take to 5980---6025+ mark in days to come

Already booked part profit... In panic will buy.. Revise stop loss of 5725 on closing basis



Natural Gas



After trigger in selling stop loss of 250.50, we recommended buying in Natural gas around 251---250.50 mark with stop loss of 247. It spurts and made a high of 257

Now what to expect???

Support at 252---247 and Resistance at 259

Decisive close above 259 will see further upside rally till 263---267+ mark in days to come

Traders holding long in Natural gas already booked part profit... In panic will buy. Stop loss remain same


Our buy Call in Aluminiuum, Lead and Zinc too proven great... Just trade with levels only











































More will update soon...

Thought for the day






Monday, 29 September 2014

Weekly Update on Metal and Energy







Weekly Update.... Just trade with levels only








News Roundup




Gold futures ended close to their lowest levels of the year on Friday, as the U.S. dollar notched up its eleventh consecutive week of gains, hitting investor demand for the precious metal. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies ended Friday’s session up 0.51% to a four year high of 85.77. A stronger U.S. dollar usually weighs on gold, as it dampens the metal's appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar was boosted after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 4.6% in the three months to June from a previous estimate of 4.2%. It was the fastest rate of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2011. The upbeat data added to the view that the strengthening economic recovery may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than markets are expecting. Expectations for higher interest rates going forward are considered bearish for gold, as the precious metal struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates are on the rise. Investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further indications on the strength of the economic recovery, after Augusts’ report fell short of expectations Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that hedge funds and money managers decreased their bullish bets in gold futures for the sixth straight week last week. Net longs totaled 63,884 contracts, down from net longs of 72,187 in the preceding week.

U.S. crude oil futures rose on Friday boosted by expectations that accelerating economic growth would support demand, while Brent oil futures ended flat, narrowing the gap between the two contracts to the smallest in nearly a year. The U.S. contract, West Texas Intermediate, posted its largest weekly gain in a month on the back of a stronger demand outlook and after data showed that domestic stockpiles declined sharply. Concerns over rising global supplies continued to pressure Brent oil lower. U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly fell by 4.27 million barrels last week as imports slowed, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude imports fell by 1.24 million barrels a day to 6.87 million, the lowest since May, as the domestic shale boom continued to eat into demand. Crude received an additional boost after the Commerce Department reported Friday that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 4.6% in the three months to June from a previous estimate of 4.2%. It was the fastest rate of expansion since the fourth quarter of 2011. Brent oil remained under pressure as growth in oil exports from Libya and Iraq and increased domestic production in the U.S. combined with sluggish demand from the euro zone and China fuelled concerns over a global supply glut. Earlier this month, both the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut their projected estimates for crude demand for next year. OPEC cut its estimate of crude demand by 200,000 barrels a day for 2015.


Natural gas prices moved up and down on Friday after updated weather-forecasting models called for mild temperatures in the coming days, which should curb demand for both air conditioning and heating. Trading was choppy, however, as longer-term models predicted significant cooling in the eastern U.S. later in October. A lackluster supply report allowed for choppy trading as well. The Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that U.S. Natural Gas Storage rose by 97 billion cubic feet last week compared to 90 billion in the week before. Analysts had expected U.S. Natural Gas Storage to rise by 94 billion cubic feet last week.





Gold



Last week, we have seen high volatility in Gold. It made a low of 26313 but unable to sustain and bounced back to 27135 mark again and finally settled at 26793 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 27067 and 27473 respectively on MCX division.

This week, Gold has support at 26550---26300 and resistance at 27150. Two consecutive closes above 27150 will take to 27500---27650 and then to 28000 mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 26550---26300 again. Further panic seen only weekly close below 26300 mark.  After sharp panic in last few trading weeks will expect Gold to trade in a range of 26300---27200 in this week. Chances are bright for downside move and any sharp rise will be best selling opportunity but trade with levels only and wait for conformation



Silver



Panic continues and made a low of 38722 in last trading week and settled at 39169 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA is at 40419 and 42013 respectively.

This week, Silver has support at 38700---38300 and resistance at 40500. Still looks weak and could test 38700---38300 mark. Three consecutive closes below 38300 will take to 37000---36000 mark in days to come. Above 40500 will expect dead cat bounce till 41300---41800 mark. On Monthly Chart, Silver looks extreme weak and will expect more panic in days to come. Monthly hurdle intact 40500. Traders holding short as per our level can book part profit and on rise will sell around 39800 with strict stop loss of 40500 on closing basis.



Crude oil


As expected, we have seen high volatility in Crude oil though traded with positive bias. It made a high- low of 5783-5552 respectively and settled at 5775 also closed above 21DEMA but below 55DEMA which is at 5702 and 5828 respectively.

This week, Crude oil has support at 5670---5630 and resistance at 5840. Two consecutive closes above 5840 will take to 5930---5980+ mark in days to come. Crude oil looks positive for short to medium term and will expect to trade with positive bias in this week. Positional fresh selling can initiate only weekly close below 5520 mark. Traders can buy and accumulate Crude oil in panic around 5720---5670 with strict stop loss of 5630 for weekly traders and 5520 for positional traders.



Natural Gas


Last week, we have seen high volatility in Natural Gas too. It unable to breach the support level of 230 and bounced back again. It settled at 248 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 239 and 242.40 respectively.

This week, Natural gas has support at 239 and resistance at 249. Two consecutive closes above 250 will see nonstop rally till 257---263+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 243---239 again. Fresh selling can initiate only close below 239 mark on closing basis for the downside target of 233---230 again. Nimble traders can buy Natural Gas in panic around 243 with stop loss of 239 for the initial target of 249. Others can trade in a range with levels only.



Copper



As expected, Copper traded choppy in last trading week though with negative bias. It made a low of 412.20 and settled 416.30 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 422.60 and 426.60 respectively.

This week, Copper has support at 412 and resistance at 420---423. Two consecutive closes below 412 will see free fall in Copper till 403---396 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 420---423. Further upside rally seen only weekly close above 423 mark. For this week will expect range bound trading in Copper. So traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for conformation.



Nickel


Last week, Nickel crashed and made a low of 1023.70. We are holding short from 1116 level and settled at 1034 also closed below 21DEMA and 55DEMA which is at 1095.7 and 1116.80 respectively.

This week, Nickel has support at 1030 and resistance at 1070. Two consecutive closes below 1030 will take to 985---970 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance again. Fresh buying can initial only weekly close above 1070 mark. Traders holding short as per our level can book part profit and on rise will sell around 1045 with revise stop loss of 1070. 



Pivot Levels



Symbol
Contract
Close
R1
R2
Pivot
S1
S2










GOLD
03OCT2014
26793
27181
27569
26747
26359
25925

SILVER
05DEC2014
39169
39801
40434
39261
38629
38090

CRUDEOIL
19OCT2014
5775
5854
5934
5703
5623
5472

NATURALGAS
25SEP2014
248
254
260
242.9
237
225

COPPER
28NOV2014
416.30
419.8
423.3
416
412.5
408.7

NICKEL
30SEP2014
1034
1066
1098
1045
1013
991

LEAD
30SEP2014
126.80
128.2
129.7
126.3
124.9
123.0

ZINC
30SEP2014
139.05
140
142
138.3
136
134

ALUMINIUM
30SEP2014
117.95
119.1
120.2
118.2
117.1
116.2


















































More will update soon...